MGO premiums blow out across NW Europe and the Baltic; VLSFO diverges

MGO jumped over $100/mt at every Northern European posting on the board — Rotterdam +120 to $1,417, Hamburg +122 to $1,712.25, Bergen +126.75 to $1,703.75, Bremerhaven +126.75 to $1,650.75, and the Baltic posts all near +120 to +124 (Muuga $1,747.50, Ventspils $1,748, Klaipeda $1,747, Riga $1,747.75, Liepaja $1,747, Kaliningrad $1,705.25, Ust-Luga $1,687.25, Primorsk $1,705.75). The Americas moved in step but smaller: Vancouver MGO +200 to $1,607, Charleston +45.5, Miami +46.75, Philadelphia +49.25. VLSFO did not follow uniformly — Rotterdam eased $6.38 to $682.50 and Houston fell $15.83 to $721.50, while the Baltic and NW European posts added $20–30 (Hamburg $757, Ust-Luga $785, Bergen $796.25). Asia was quiet: Singapore VLSFO $842 (−3.88), Hong Kong $876.50 (+3.5), Busan $954.33 (+2).

With attention on East of Suez fuel availability this week, the numbers that matter are the MGO–VLSFO gaps. At Rotterdam the gap is $734.50/mt ($1,417 MGO less $682.50 VLSFO); on a 1,200-tonne MGO stem that is $881,400 versus the same tonneage on VLSFO at $819,000 — a $62,400 headline difference, before scrubber economics. The Baltic VLSFO at Muuga ($573) sits $109.50/mt below Rotterdam ($682.50): on a 1,200-tonne stem that is $131,400 on paper. One day of deviation at $15,000 hire plus the fuel burned getting there takes a large share of that $131,400; the arithmetic has to include the return leg if the next loadup is back in the ARA range, where VLSFO at Antwerp ($676.67) and Hamburg ($757) bracket the Muuga number differently.

US Gulf is wider on VLSFO than ARA: Houston $721.50 against New Orleans $840 is a $118.50/mt gap. Brent $99.34/bbl, WTI $94.33/bbl, EUAs €85.42/t.