Baltic and North European MGO reprice sharply; VLSFO spread to the Med widens to $105/mt

The move of the day is MGO across the Baltic and North Sea: Baltiysk up $275.50 to $1,809.75, Valencia up $122 to $1,842.75, Wilhelmshaven up $112.25 to $1,848.75, Hamburg up $111.50 to $1,823.75, Tallinn up $111.50 to $1,855.75. Rotterdam is the outlier, falling $47 to $1,370, leaving ARA MGO roughly $475–$485/mt below the Baltic range on the numbers on this board. The wider market is watching the Hormuz blockade, now six months old, and curbs on Iran driving China toward Russian crude; Brent at $101.06 and WTI at $96.55 sit behind the board.

The spread worth checking is VLSFO Gibraltar at $723.5 against Piraeus at $828.5 — $105/mt. On a 1,200 tonne stem that is $126,000 of headline difference. Against it: one day's deviation on a mid-size hull at $15,000 hire is $15,000, plus roughly 20–25 tonnes of fuel burned getting there at those VLSFO prices — call it $15,000–$18,000 — so deviation takes about $30,000–$33,000 of the $126,000, and the balance holds only if the stem, quality and wait times at Gibraltar match the Piraeus alternative. The same check applies Gibraltar against Algeciras VLSFO at $826.5: $103/mt, or $123,600 on 1,200 tonnes.

Elsewhere, Qingdao VLSFO jumped $163 to $932.25 while Shanghai added $21.12 to $878.25; Singapore VLSFO at $850 with MGO at $1,266 remains the cheapest East Asian MGO on the board, with Busan close behind at $1,337. US Gulf holds its premium: Houston VLSFO $728 and HSFO $527.50 sit well below New York's $773 and Norfolk's $820. EU carbon at €85.57/tonne. Numbers below; check the arithmetic against the table.