Rotterdam HSFO at $600.50 against Valencia MGO at $1,877: a $1,276.50 spread worth $1.53m on a 1,200t stem

The board is split in two. Western Mediterranean and Baltic MGO sits at $1,850-1,910 (Valencia $1,877, Augusta $1,906.25, Klaipeda $1,899.75) while Rotterdam MGO is $1,482.5 and Houston $1,481. On HSFO the gap is wider: Rotterdam $600.5 and Antwerp $593.25 against Valencia $1,877 and Gibraltar $670.5. The Rotterdam-to-Valencia HSFO spread is $1,276.5/mt; on a 1,200 tonne stem that is $1,531,800 of headline difference.

That headline does not survive the trip arithmetic untouched. One day of deviation on a mid-size hull at $15,000 hire is $15,000, before the fuel burned getting there. Even at the VLSFO level, taking 1,200t at Rotterdam ($710) rather than Algeciras ($898.75) saves $226,500 on the stem; a two-day round deviation at $15,000/day plus, say, 60 tonnes of self-consumption at $710 ($42,600) still leaves roughly $154,000. The same check on the MGO spread (Rotterdam $1,482.5 vs Valencia $1,877, $394.5/mt, $473,400 on 1,200t) leaves about $415,800 after the same deviation cost.

Elsewhere: Zhoushan HSFO prints at $6,044, which does not sit alongside the rest of the Chinese board (Shanghai $797) and reads like a data error — check before relying on it. Seattle MGO and VLSFO both print $1,035.25, with the MGO change shown as -$517.75, another line worth querying with the supplier. Attention this week is on tanker availability and Red Sea security; no view taken here.