Fujairah HSFO collapses below ARA on a split board; the Atlantic MGO spread buys you two deviation days at best

Fujairah HSFO is the outlier on a falling board: 600.69, down 154.81, which puts it below Rotterdam (616.5) and Antwerp (605.75) and well under Singapore (728). Elsewhere the large moves of the day are up, not down: US Gulf and Brazilian MGO jumped — New Orleans +295 to 1598, Panama (Balboa) +176 to 1618, Norfolk +188 to 1667, Bahia Blanca +205 to 1782 — alongside broad Baltic/Baltic-range gains of roughly 40/mt on MGO (Tallinn 1896.25, Riga 1896, Klaipeda 1899.75) against New York HSFO at 576.5. EUA at 86.89 EUR/tonne. With attention on the Strait of Hormuz corridor talks and Bab el-Mandeb this week, the board is split rather than one-way.

The Atlantic MGO spread against Rotterdam is the number worth pricing through. Rotterdam MGO 1512.5 vs Gibraltar 1620.5 is 108/mt; on a 1,200-tonne stem that is 129,600 dollars headline. Against that, an illustrative one-day deviation at 15,000/day hire plus, say, 30 tonnes of MGO burned at Rotterdam's 1512.5 (45,375) is 60,375 dollars — about 47% of the spread — before deviation-borne risk on hull and delay. The VLSFO version is thinner: Gibraltar 747 vs Rotterdam 716.5 is 30.5/mt, or 36,600 on 1,200 tonnes, which one day of deviation would erase outright. Las Palmas VLSFO at 758.5 sits between the two.

Data flags on today's board: Seattle shows MGO and VLSFO at the identical 1035.25 (the MGO change, −517.75, suggests a stale or corrected print); Shanghai HSFO change of −5494.5 is not credible against the 779.5 price; Zhoushan HSFO at 6044 and Salvador VLSFO at 1384.75 sit far from every peer and should be verified before use. Tokyo HSFO at 527 is the low print on the board; Port Louis HSFO at 962 is the high.