Baltic VLSFO discount is real but grade-specific; Brazil resets lower; two suspect prints flagged

Brent 102.12, WTI 91.29, EUA 86.01. The Baltic VLSFO quotes are the cheapest on the board — Tallinn, Muuga and Klaipeda all 573, Liepaja and Ventspils 623 — against Rotterdam VLSFO at 697. That is a 124/mt spread at the 573 ports. The MGO side runs the other way: Baltic MGO sits 1,833.75–1,835.75 against Rotterdam 1,430, a 403.75/mt premium. The Baltic works only for VLSFO-burning hulls; an MGO stem inverts it.

On the arithmetic: 124/mt on a 1,200 mt stem is 148,800 of headline difference. One day of deviation at 15,000 hire plus an assumed 30 mt of VLSFO burned at the Rotterdam price of 697 (20,910) costs 35,910 — about 24% of the spread. Two days of deviation, 71,820, takes roughly 48%. Worth doing before routing a stem through the Gulf of Finland on the headline number alone.

Brazil reset hard: Rio 934 (-120.75), Fortaleza 934 (-113), Niteroi 933.75 (-115.25), Paranagua 950 (-116.25), Belem 1,002.50 (-103.75). Salvador at 1,262.25 (-122.50) is the outlier, 328.25 above Rio; Santos at 850.50 is 83.50 below Rio. Elsewhere, Fujairah HSFO 589.63 (-112.37) is 105.37 under Singapore HSFO at 695. Two data flags: Zhoushan HSFO 6,154 (+335) and Shanghai HSFO 6,428 sit far above every other HSFO print on the board, and Seattle MGO shows a +527 change against a 1,562.25 price — check those before use.

On the wire: attention on the resumption of bunkering at Rio Grande terminal, the UK ETS arriving for shipping and what it means for charterers, a piece on volatility and surcharging, and oil extending gains amid US–Iran diplomacy doubts.