Baltic VLSFO at $573 while Hamburg asks $722.50 — the spread that looks like a bargain, costed out

The widest VLSFO gap on today's board is inside the Baltic: Livorno aside, Tallinn, Muuga, Klaipeda, Ventspils, Liepaja and Riga all print $573–623, against Hamburg at $722.50 and Rotterdam at $763.38. On a 1,200 tonne stem the headline difference between Tallinn and Rotterdam is $228,456. That is the number that tempts a deviation. The cost side: one day of deviation on a mid-size hull at $15,000 hire is $15,000, and the fuel burned getting there and back — say 40 tonnes round trip at today's Rotterdam VLSFO of $763.38 — adds roughly $30,535. Against $228,456 that still leaves the Baltic call looking attractive, but the arithmetic narrows fast if the deviation runs two days or the stem is smaller: on 600 tonnes the same gap is worth $114,228, and a two-day, 60-tonne detour costs about $60,800. Note also that the Baltic $573–623 prints carry no change figure today, so treat them as unconfirmed until they move.