Americas distillates reset lower; Baltic VLSFO prints raise eyebrows

With Brent at $103.10 and WTI at $89.63, and EUAs at EUR 85.95/t, the biggest single-day moves on the board are in the western hemisphere. New Orleans MGO came back $145 to $1,453/mt and Houston MGO $94.5 to $1,386.5; the Brazilian chain dropped together — Salvador VLSFO -$122.5 to $1,262.25, Rio -$120.75 to $934, Fortaleza -$113 to $934, Niteroi -$115.25 to $933.75. Montreal VLSFO was the largest cut anywhere, -$167 to $1,090.5. In northern Europe, MGO eased broadly by $60–67 (Wilhelmshaven $1,823.5, Bremerhaven $1,737.5, Gothenburg $1,694) with two exceptions: Hamburg -$323.25 to $1,481 and Skagen -$165 to $1,398.5.

Two clusters deserve verification before anyone acts on them. The Baltic VLSFO prints — Tallinn, Muuga and Riga all at $573, Liepaja $623, Livorno $549 — carry no previous close and sit $75–250 under their own regional neighbours (Cuxhaven $801.5, Wilhelmshaven $883.75); likewise Shanghai and Zhoushan HSFO at $7,011 and $6,679/mt against Singapore HSFO at $740. Treat those as unconfirmed until re-quoted.

On spreads made up entirely of confirmed moves: New Orleans MGO at $1,453 versus Norfolk at $1,594 is $141/mt, worth $169,200 on a 1,200-tonne stem. Against that, a deviation costs real money. At an assumed $15,000/day hire and two additional steaming days burning 30t/day of VLSFO priced at Houston's $748, the diversion bill is 2 x $15,000 + 60 x $748 = $74,880 — roughly 44 percent of the headline saving, before barge, throughput and waiting time at either berth. Whether the balance clears depends on the fixture, not the board.